Always a Safe Bet

Retailer Iceland go plastic free

The food industry has defied all odds, showing remarkable resilience and potential for growth amidst strong global economic headwinds.

According to data from Stocklytics, this year, global spending on food will reach USD9 trillion-a USD2.5 trillion uptick compared to pre-pandemic levels-and will continue growing at roughly USD700bn per year.

A recent market analysis by Stocklytics projects a high 36% growth in global food expenditure, to reach a value of USD12.4 trillion by 2029. This forecast underlines great consequences for the stakeholders along the value chain of food, starting from producers and processors and moving to distributors and technology providers.

Not surprisingly, much of the growth is due more to inflationary pressures than pure volume growth. Spending is set to increase by 36%, but per capita food volume will rise by only 12%, from 339kg to 382kg. This underlines the desperate need for efficiency gains and cost management strategies all along the supply chain.

Growth patterns vary widely from region to region, creating different challenges and opportunities in each market. Emerging markets will see high growth, from which China’s market is forecasted to increase 42% to USD2.2 trillion by 2029, while India’s is expected to grow 44% to USD1.28 trillion. For comparison, mature markets in the United States and Japan are set to expand only 20% and 10%, respectively, during the same period.

These large differences in performance between various markets argue for a nuanced approach, at the discretion of each market, for the multinational operators and their suppliers. The Stocklytics review further gives more granularity in different categories of food items, which are useful to plan at sector levels. Bread will increase by 18%, while oils and fats will increase by 18%, fish and seafood by 19%.

A close second is the meat category, also set to rise by about 17% at USD10.66 per unit by 2029. Vegetables and the average growth for all foods will be 16% during this period. These projections are critical to investment decisions, R&D focus, and capacity planning across the industry. The fact that volume growth outstrips spending increases underlines the growing imperative for logistics, storage, and distribution efficiency.

Against this backdrop, most industry leaders will further accelerate the integration of IoT, AI, and blockchain solutions to manage the rising intricacies of a growing, inflationary market. With increasing costs, the sustainability of production methods aiding in minimizing input costs but still helping consumers satisfy their needs for greener products will be increasingly important.

The price volatility expected to be increasingly important presumes to be sophisticated hedging strategies and financial instruments that fit the food industry. Because the growth rates are expected to differ substantially between emerging and mature markets, companies must build adaptable and local strategies so they can stay competitive.

Price sensitivity will further go up, with increasing opportunities for products on better value propositions. Only those industry players who can manage such complex market dynamics with the help of data-driven insights and modern, evolving technologies will deliver on that robust growth trajectory.

The Stocklytics report portrays a huge food industry that is dynamic and fast-changing. Projected growth, therefore, offers enormous opportunities but also comes with varied challenges that must be solved innovatively and require strategic foresight.

The way ahead in the industry would thus lie in collaboration among all relevant stakeholders-from agricultural technology companies to financial institutions specializing in commodity markets-to correctly assess the many different obstacles and opportunities thrown up by this unprecedented growth.

This is a big moment for the food industry. A projected growth to 36% by 2029 is not a number but an invite to players within this industry to rethink their strategy, investments in innovation, and forging new relationships. Indeed, those able to adapt will survive but thrive in the USD12.4 trillion market of the near future.

To read the entire article, please access your complimentary e-copy of Frozen Food Europe September-October, 2024 issue here.