Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has launched a Grocery Vulnerability Index to guide CPG brands and retailers on the impact that increased out-of-home dining has on selected grocery categories, as restaurants add capacity and COVID-19 vaccinations become widely available. The index measures the likelihood that a change in quick-service restaurant (QSR) spending correlates to a change in spending on a given grocery category, a press release states.
“As COVID restrictions begin to relax and vaccinations become widely used, retailers and brands need to understand what the changes mean for their business,” Eric Belcher, CEO, Numerator said. “Numerator data helps retailers and brands anticipate and predict the impact of re-emerging behaviors using advanced analytics.”
Frozen Foods is currently categorized as a “Wait and See” category, currently at 2% more likely to see a decrease, but certain categories within frozen foods are more vulnerable than others to an increase in restaurant spending. Baking and Cooking is currently at 2%, but vulnerability could be reduced if baking hobbies taken up during the pandemic become lasting behaviors.
Other key findings include that meat, herbs, and spices are among the highly vulnerable categories. Meat is 50% more likely than the average grocery category to experience a decrease in grocery sales as QSR/restaurants reopen and consumers replace their home-cooked meals.
Condiments, packaged bakery, and dairy are ranked as moderately vulnerable, as condiments are 19% more likely to see a decrease, with consumption declining as consumers eat fewer meals and snacks at home. Packaged Bakery is 13% more likely to have a negative response, as increased mobility among consumers will likely result in more baked goods purchased on the go from QSRs. Dairy is 8% more likely to see a decrease. While many dairy products remain staples in the refrigerator, both consumption and usage in recipes will likely decline.
Candy, shelf-stable meals, breakfast, and more are named the least vulnerable categories in the study.