While a large part of the United States is battling “extreme and exceptional” drought as the American government has called it, the United Kingdom has been faced with heavy rainfall in early summer, in what now is known as “the wettest drought” in years. Neither appears to be very good news for potato production.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, since 2005, the U.S. potato industry has enjoyed a trade surplus in potatoes and potato products. Net export value of potatoes and potato products in 2009 totaled $180 million. Japan, Canada, and Mexico are the top three export markets; together, they account for about two-thirds of total U.S. potato exports. Most exports consist of processed potatoes, such as frozen French fries, potato chips, and dehydrated potatoes. Frozen French fries are the top potato product exported from the United States, accounting for more than half of total potato export volume.
In 2009, exports of frozen French fries totaled 3.0 billion pounds (fresh-weight-equivalent basis), valued at $635 million. Although 2009’s volume and value are down from 2008, French fry exports have been trending upward over the decade. However, this year, because of the severe dry weather, food production, including potato production is projected to decrease, which means prices will go up. Already, the U.S.D.A corn and soybean production will be down this year, 13 percent and 12 percent respectively. Beef production will be down 4 percent as well. ‘In 2013 as a result of this drought we are looking at above-normal food price inflation. … Consumers are certainly going to feel it,’ USDA economist Richard Volpe said. Normal grocery price inflation is about 2.8 percent, he added, so even at the low end of the projected range people will see their grocery expenses rise more than usual next year. The USDA kept its projected food price increase for 2012 steady at 2.5% to 3.5%.
Lessons learnt from the “Wet Draught”
Specialists and university professors will discuss the lessons learnt from the wettest drought in history at the East of England Potato Day, to be held at Frederick Hiam, Tuddenham, Bury St Edmunds on August 30. According to potatopro.com, attendees will be examining how the economics of irrigation are changing and what growers should consider in terms of improving irrigation management and learning how to cope with climate extremes. Speakers will also be discussing cultivation timing and depth, and the impact these have on soil workability. “We have followed last year’s successful formula of repeating the morning sessions in the afternoon,” said Potato Council technical executive Gary Collins, who is organizing the event. “Manufacturers will be on-hand to discuss various seed treatments, and there will also be a range of varieties from major breeders and agents on display. Moreover, with Alternaria becoming a growing threat in the Eastern counties, there will be an important opportunity to discuss control of this disease with specialists from Agrii who will be using spore traps in the demonstration field to monitor populations.”
Potato retail market in the UK
Total potato sales are worth £2.3bn at retail (excluding crisps and snacks), with the fresh sector accounting for £1bn. The total frozen category continues to perform well. Looking at the latest 52-week period, the volume sales of both frozen chips and frozen potato products are in growth due to an increase in market penetration and shoppers purchasing more frequently. The retail market is dominated by the major multiples, with the top 5 accounting for over 80% of sales. Potatoes account for 1.1% of sales from the multiples – and by volume is the largest category in fresh produce. The decline in volume sales of fresh potatoes stands at -1% in the latest 52-week period vs. the -0.7% previously reported. Pre-packed volumes saw slight growth of +0.1% with loose down by 12.2%. Value sales were down by 5.9% with both pre-packed and loose declining as overall average price per kg decreased by 4.9% YOY.
In terms of performance by category, according to information from Kantar Worldpanel and the Potato Council, the decline in volume sales of fresh potatoes has deepened to -1% in the latest 52-week period vs. the -0.7% previously reported. Pre-packed volumes saw slight growth of +0.1% with loose down by 12.2%. Value sales were down by 5.9% with both pre-packed and loose declining as overall average price per kg decreased by 4.9% YOY. In the latest quarter, the sales trends continue with pre-packed volumes remaining unchanged YOY. Organic sales continue to decline in terms of both value and volume. Chilled potatoes saw volume and value growth once again. A YOY price increase of 2.3% is driving value growth – average price currently stands at £3.51. Volume growth is being driven by shoppers buying more chilled products on a more frequent basis. In the latest quarter, both crisps and savory snacks saw value and volume sales growth.
Volume growth was driven by an increase in market penetration for both crisps and savory snacks with the latter also benefiting from shoppers purchasing more frequently. For both product categories, average price increases supported value growth – crisps average price increased by 7.4% YOY with the average price of savory snacks up by 4% YOY. Both canned and convenience saw value and volume sales down in the latest 52-week period. This trend continues in the latest quarter with the exception of unchanged volume sales for canned potatoes YOY. In the latest year, the decline in sales for both product types has been driven by a reduction in market penetration – down by 6.2% to 16.9% for canned potatoes and down by 4.5% to 19.9% for convenience.
Potatoes not related to weight gain
Calorie intake from white potatoes is surprisingly modest for adults and school-aged children, according to a recent study released at the Experimental Biology 2012 Annual Meeting in the U.S. Dr. Maureen Storey, Chief Executive Officer for the science-based Alliance for Potato Research and Education (APRE) presented the new analysis using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). “School-aged children consumed, on average, only three percent or less of calories per day from all types of white potatoes, including baked, boiled, mashed, French fried and other mealtime preparation methods. And children consumed, on average, less than one percent of their daily caloric intake from white potatoes at school,” said Dr. Storey.
According to the APRE website, adults also consume few calories from white potatoes and as people get older, they consume fewer total calories, as well as fewer calories from white potatoes. For example, adult males 19-30 years consume about 92 calories a day from white potatoes or about 3.3 percent of total calories; males 71+ consume 63 calories a day from white potatoes or about 3.3 percent of total calories consumed, on average. Similarly adult women 19+ years consumed, on average, 52 calories from white potatoes a day, which is a little less than three percent of their total calories. “A leader in the vegetable category, white potatoes are packed with nutrition, they’re affordable, versatile and people of all ages enjoy them in any way they are prepared. According to the 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, intakes of potassium and dietary fiber are low enough in the United States to be a public health concern.
Only three percent of the population meets the adequate intake for potassium. The white potato – a nutrient-dense vegetable – is one way to help fill that gap”, said Dr Storey. For instance, a medium-sized skin-on baked white potato is an excellent source of potassium (26% DV), vitamin C (28% DV), and vitamin B6 (27% DV) and a good source of dietary fiber (15% DV), magnesium (12% DV), and iron (10% DV) based on a 2,000 calorie diet. USDA’s MyPlate initiative encourages all Americans to make half their plate fruit and vegetables. The nutrient-dense potato certainly fits on most everyone’s plate. “Government data show that total fruit and vegetable consumption has been declining in the last decade. We need to find more ways to encourage vegetable consumption, including white potatoes,” she concluded.