While there’s no doubt that an important part of the population turns to vegetarian of flexitarian diets, meat still counts as preferable for most consumers.
Plant-based and free-from products have made a dent in meat and poultry’s overall share of the market, but that’s still far from radically changing the way producers address this market.
A recent report from the European Commission predicted that the EU meat market will go through considerable changes over the coming decade.
The forecast to 2031 presents an outlook for more sustainable methods and a marked decline in overall meat consumption across the European Union. Sustainability will continue to be the key driver in shaping production and consumption patterns.
Modernization, new technologies, and changing farming methods are likely to contribute to making meat production more efficient and ‘greener’. At the same time, such changes usually require substantial investments, which become a challenge for producers. The factors of environmental concern, climate change awareness, health considerations, and a desire for convenience will also increasingly determine consumption.
These considerations are projected to drive down per capita EU meat consumption from 69.8 kg in 2018 to 67 kg by 2031. The beef sector outlook is exceptionally stark. EU gross beef production is expected to decline by 0.6 million tons, or 8%, during the outlook period (with the total cow herd to drop by 7% – a reduction of 2.1 million heads). Beef consumption is foreseen to further decline from 10.6 kg/capita in 2021 to 9.7 kg/capita in 2031.
Overall, there are question marks over the future development of the pigmeat sector due mainly to African Swine Fever. China is expected to recover completely in 2026 and may have a quite particular impact on the export position of the EU as far as pigmeat is concerned. Besides that, changing consumer behavior in the EU with regards to health, the environment, and societal concerns is expected to continue its downward pressure on the consumption of pigmeat.
It projects a reduction from 32.5 kg in 2021 to 31 kg per capita in 2031, while production is expected to fall by 0.8% yearly to reach 21.5 million tons in 2031. The situation in the poultry sector is somewhat different but with slower growth. EU consumption growth is expected to slow down from 2% per year in 2011-2021 to 0.6% in 2021-2031.
This represents an uplift from 23.5 kg per capita in 2021 to 24.8kg in 2031. The report said this growth is due to poultry being perceived as a healthier alternative compared to other meats, it is convenient to prepare, and there are no religious constraints on consumption. EU poultry production is forecast to keep growing at 0.4% annually until 2031, reaching 14 million tons.
These projections bring into focus the increasingly intricate interplay between sustainability goals, shifting consumer trends, and industry challenges that will continue to mold the landscape of the EU meat market in the forthcoming years. As the sector readjusts to these dynamically changing dynamics, it also faces both opportunities for innovation and significant hurdles in meeting targets for sustainability while responding to shifting patterns of demand.
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